Friedrich Merz was elected as chancellor by the German Bundestag today, but only after the drama of yesterday when he surprisingly failed to secure enough votes.  The votes were by secret ballot so it is not clear which members initially withheld their votes yesterday.  But the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party immediately used Merz’s stumble out of the gate to call for new elections.

This begs the question as to which path Germany will choose going forward.  Perhaps Merz will be successful in expanding the popularity of the of his center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and thereby eventually increase the thin majority of his coalition government.  On the other hand, if the center of the German political spectrum - primarily the CDU and Social Democrats (SPD) - continues to become less popular, this could open the door for governance by the AfD in the not-too-distant future.

Merz’s coalition has refused to cooperate with the AfD, blocking it from any participation in the government despite the fact that it placed second in the February national election. Germany’s intelligence agency has labeled the AfD as an extremist organization, opening the door for domestic surveillance of that party.  Despite these efforts, polls indicate that the AfD has continued to grow in popularity even in the months since the election.  For many moderate and left-leaning Germans the possibility that the AfD could gain control of the government in the next election is a nightmare scenario, especially in light of Germany’s political history in the first half of the 20th Century.

One thing that will be interesting to watch is how American politics might influence the German electorate.   Trump’s close ally Elon Musk has expressed support for the AfD, and many Americans have voiced concern that he has fascist leanings. 

Vice President Vance has scolded Germany and other European countries for supposedly stifling free-speech in their efforts to police hate speech and disinformation.  This was interpreted by some as tacit support for the far-right across Europe. 

Recently, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has criticized Germany for its labeling of the AfD as an extremist organization. 

The Trump administration’s shift toward Putin’s Russia also is consistent with the friendly rhetoric of the AfD. 

All of this hints strongly at the possibility that the Trump administration would welcome the AfD coming to power in Germany. 

But this begs the question as to whether Trump’s support would help or hurt the AfD.  For one thing, it might undercut the AfD’s views about American dominance over Germany since World War II.

A more important factor affecting the AfD’s future may be the extent to which Trump’s policies will be popular or not over the next year or two.  Trump’s economic policies – particularly high tariffs and severe government cuts – have already caused much consternation, uncertainty, and pessimism.  As a result, Trump’s poll numbers - especially on economic issues - have plummeted.  If these trends continue, and the US continues to lose wealth and prestige while facing higher prices, will this be a warning sign for Germans who now are open to the idea that populist political and economic will improve their lives?    Only time will tell, but it is possible that, should Trump fail, the rise of the populist right in Germany and the rest of Europe may be weakened.